Jason Schaeffer (v 1.3773)

While not a soothsayer nor particularly adept at calling the top tick, the bevy of articles highlighting the vast amounts of VC funding and forecasts for the social media space are causing some concern?

The recent Business Week (from Oct 22, 2007) story titled “What in the Web are they thinking” got me to thinking about the topic (yet again).  With Facebook expected to go public or be acquired at values superceding $10 BILLION (what?!), profit expectations (not revenue) quoted at $2.2 billion (what?) for the company by one investor quoted…i think they bring in $150m in revenue now from a deal with msn…makes me think we are at the top of the market!????

While I still cringe at not having bought GOOG with the stock shooting past $600 like it was a minor speedbump, recent write down by Ebay also caught my eye.  I understand “the street” had already written down the Skype acquisition…but only 24 months earlier, this was the darling of all darling acquisitions.  Now, when ebay writes down $1.4b, the stock slights edges up?

At CES last year in Las Vegas, a VC on one of the investor  panels suggested funding goes in 3 year cycles for the internet space?  At the time, we were in “year two” according to the VC…specifically for the social networking space.  I have a Facebook profile, I set up a Myspace account, I use LinkedIn once in a while…whats next? Am I representative of the internet user base writ large?  Or, are there millions of users still clamoring for a social networking profile and about to jump on Facebook en masse?  Or, consolidation engineered by the investment banking community?  Aggregation (ie LinkedIn is acquired by a Monster or Career Builder) or more money thrown at the space..ie funding apps?

Thoughts?

I have commented on this book before, but “Mavericks at Work” by William Taylor and Polly LaBarre is an interesting book to pick up.  A quick read if you have to fly coast to coast and need a page turner.  I enjoyed this book despite my hesitation to read another management or strategy book.  With quotes like “The strong take from the weak …but the smart take from the strong”, one might roll their eyes.. ..but it has plenty of solid case studies that are illuminating and insightful and offer thoughts to apply to one’s own business problems and challenges.

Here are a few takeaways from the book:

- It references “Leading the Revolution” by Gary Hamel.  Book on the internet explosion and group think.

- Interesting case studies on ING. One quote of particular interest that resonates with me: “Even in the face of massive competition, dont think about the competition.  Literally dont think about them.  Every time you’re in a meeting and you’re tempted to talk about a competitor, replace that thought with one about user feedback or surveys.  Just think about the customer.”  I cant put this into practice fast enough.  How often have I sat in meetings when we pour over what our comps are doing…but spend scant time on what feedback from our users suggests.  For new product dev, we look at our comps, vs asking our end users or reading their emails.

- Brilliant question in the book: “Can you identify one piece of how your company operates, that, if it were to disappear, would be sorely missed in the marketplace?  If not, can you identify one good reason why your company is not at risk of disappearing”?

- Fantastic case study on Goldcorp.  How they opened up to the world a competition to determine if one of their mining districts held any promise.  They provided a competition on where to drill next?

- Yet another reference to the famous book “The Cathedral and the Bazaar” by Eric Raymond.  Open source plays throughout this book, referenced as a means to get the masses thinking about minute problem sets then providing a catalyst to solve (whether money and a competition, bragging rights, etc).

- Funny quote: “Only dead fish go with the flow” or “A solution is what results when you stop thinking about the problem”.

- Book references: “Funky Business: Talent Makes Capital Dance” by Jonas Ridderstrale.  Also “The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less” by Barry Schwartz.  I have read the latter and hits on a theme that will surely resonate with people today.  Too many choices, brand confusion, noise, low signal to noise ratio, etc.

- Website for those interested in culture, business practices, HR matters, etc.

I highly recommend this book. A must read.

Alot of articles in the past few months about companies purchasing URLs and layering on paid search and a content offering.  Marchex is an interesting play in this space.  Billions of dollars, according to the trade mags, have funneled into this space in the past 12 months?  Why?  Side note/question: wonder if there will be a secondary market created, with the likes of Verisign figuring out the underlying value and various monetization strategies?

What happens with the mobile space and even the TV space when it goes digital.  Will there be a UI for TV or mobile that changes the search functionality or use of www. when interacting with a web site?  Is there some underlying value in the URL structure as it exists now…or will this too be upended with new technology in the coming 12-24 months?

From an article in Entrepreneur’s July 2007 edition…two books that may be worth looking at:

- “Cool Hunting” by Peter Gloor talks about the “new new thing”.  It discussing how to identify trends and products/services that are “cool” before everyone else does.   It discusses focusing on “early adopters” vs innovators and harnessing one’s own network to identify trends.

- “The 4 Hour Week” by Timothy Ferriss.    Discusses taking control of one’s life and transitioning from a workaholic to relaxation addict.  Not sure I subscribe to this approach to life..hey, I like to work really hard…but others may need to find a middle ground?